Time to get off the fence as regards the 2010 Grand National.

The race is still twelve days, yet the Aintree clerk seems confident he will serve up "lovely jumping ground" come the big day.

I suspect he will produce lovely testing ground if next week's weather forecast turn out as wet as this week's, but for the moment the best plan is to boil a massive field down to a short list of positives and negatives.

In truth, there is no flash story with the Chief except to say that he is a thorough stayer with a Grade 1 hurdle success to his credit at Aintree who is in the form of his life over fences.

Granted, his Donny win came in a veterans contest, but CDG is low mileage over fences for a ten-year-old and put up a vibrant performance in the William Hill Chase at Cheltenham two weeks ago to spring a 33-1 surprise with no semblance of fluke about it.

Accurate, economical jumping and appetite for a battle were the hallmarks of that performance and although The Package came home powerfully it's hard to see why he is as short as 14-1 while CDG is 25-1 and even 33-1 in a place.

In short, Chief Dan George is plainly one of the best handicapped horses in this year's National field given that his Aintree mark is 6lb lower than the rating he won off at the Festival and his jumping looks a significant plus.

Character Building and Comply Or Die were 36 and 42 lengths behind CDG at Cheltenham, but it's safe to assume both horses have been primed with Aintree more in mind and much better can be expected on April 10th.

Character Building was well fancied for last year's National until a late setback intervened and he's very fairly treated from a mark just 6lb higher than when winning at last year's Cheltenham Festival, while Comply Or Die has finished first and second in the last two renewals and the 25-1 just looks too big for a horse whose Aintree exploits in the last two years have been little short of heroic. 

Now to Niche Market and Vic Venturi. Niche Market is another who finished behind CDG at Cheltenham, but he was far from disgraced and has plenty to recommend him as a potential National winner.

First, he stays all day; second, he jumps really well and has never fallen; third, he has an Irish National success on his dance card and that race has been a launchpad to Aintree success for the likes of Bobbyjo, Papillon and Numbersixvalverde in recent years; and fourth, Niche Market has looked as good if not better than ever twice this season with a fine third in Denman's Hennessy and a slightly unlucky second to Tricky Trickster in Newbury's Aon Chase.

I must admit to having done a U-turn over Vic Venturi. My first reaction to his Becher Chase win here last November was that he had beaten a small field after a few hesitant jumps, but on reflection he was well on top close home and the way he sauntered clear of stablemate Black Apalachi and the high-class Notre Pere off the final bend in the Bobbjyo Chase at Fairyhouse suggests he has improved again since.

Plenty of horses who have never fallen before hit the deck for the first time in the National, but Vic Venturi is plainly a sound jumper having stayed upright in 19 chases thus far. Stats junkies will point to the fact that he and Niche Market figure on 11st6lb and 11st4lb respectively, but the first four home all humped 11st or more last year and Vic Venturi is another with the potential to go off shorter than the current 16-1 quote.

I can't think of too many less pleasant experiences than laying a horse in the National and watching it romp home ahead of the 39 horses you supposedly had running for you, but opposing potential weak links in the place market can often be a value option and I'm keen to be against the gambled-on Irish raider Arbor Supreme.

The Racing Post described it as a surprise that Paul Townend rather than AP McCoy will be aboard this gelding in the big one, but they might not be so surprised if they watched the videos of his races. From what I have seen, Arbor Supreme needs a lot of "minding"  and holding up to get into a smooth rhythm and there are often at least one or two fairly significant errors along the way. Put simply, sloppy jumpers still get found out in this race. And Arbor Supreme looks a sloppy jumper.

Some fair judges are sitting on big prices about The Package which were secured before his fine Festival effort and it will be fascinating to see if Timmy Murphy deserts his old favourite Comply Or Die in order to ride a gelding who is plainly much improved over three miles this season. It's not a choice I would like to make, but it's fair to point out that The Package is now about the price he ought to be and his pedigree does raise some concerns as to whether he will truly stay the National trip.

Mon Mome gave bookmakers a National day they will never forget last year and is only 7lb higher for what was ultimately a commanding success, but I haven't been that convinced by his efforts this season and I'm not sure that coming from way back to pick up remote minor pieces in the Gold Cup truly proves he is back to his very best.

He can bid for a follow up without my money on his back at 10 or 12-1, while Big Fella Thanks recorded a career best over two and a half miles at Newbury last time but ended up being beaten 23 lengths into sixth here last year and 8-1 seems some way from being the bargain of the century even allowing that Ruby will be aboard.

Few would blame Ruby for deserting Tricky Trickster after his woeful Gold Cup run, while the freewheeling Black Apalachi looks more a back to lay contender than a straight win option.

I'm not sure what to make of State of Play given that his sole run since last year's fourth yielded a lifeless effort, while Backstage's heavy defeat at Navan over the weekend was hardly a boost to his chance even allowing that it came on unsuitably deep ground.

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It might not pay to read on if you are looking for one name as regards this year's National.

These are still early days to jump into the ante post market, but we do know there are still 75 possibles after another forfeit stage today and it's worth noting a few points.

Good luck to Mon Mome in his bid to follow up last year's 100-1 success, but I doubt I will be with him. Granted, he bolted clear on the run-in twelve months ago and a 7lb hike is hardly punitive, but he enjoyed a charmed run on the inside throughout for the last majority of last year's race and it's hard to see him enjoying the same smooth passage this time. His fans will point out that he seemed to run a blinder for third in the Gold Cup. And I would counter that he merely picked up the pieces from weary rivals having been hopelessly outpaced when the race began in earnest.

I'm struggling to keep the faith with Tricky Trickster after his woeful effort in the Gold Cup and it wouldn't be surprising to see Ruby Walsh aboard Big Fella Thanks on the big day. And once again, I have some doubts. BFT ran very well for sixth last year and is potentially well treated having recorded a career best at Newbury since the weights were published. However, I'm not sure whether improving markedly over two and a half miles is a massive plus when it comes to moving on to the National trip. Add in the fact that BFT made a couple of scruffy errors on the wide outside last year and I'm not wholly convinced.

Now to the Dessie Hughes pair of Vic Venturi and Black Apalachi, who both have Aintree wins to their credit and have been handled purely with this in mind. Black Apalachi was loving it out in front when he departed at the second Becher's last year, while the double V won the Becher Chase last November and really blossomed at Fairyhouse last time to cruise clear of his stablemate in the Bobbyjo Chase.

That success changed my mind about VV. He was a touch hesitant in a small field on his first visit to Aintree, but he's never fallen and Hughes plainly has a very strong hand to play this year.

My moles at the boozy National weights lunch suggest there was some very spiky banter between Backstage's trainer Gordon Elliott and the gelding's former handler Evan Williams. I like Gordon. And I like Evan. But which one is better? As the great Harry Hill might say, there's only one way to find out.

And that's to set up a match bet between Backstage and the Williams-trained State of Play. Of the pair I much prefer Backstage. Admittedly, eight chases doesn't represent a lot of seasoning for a National contender, but Backstage has thrived since joining the Elliott academy and simply bolted up in a warm handicap at Ffos las. By contrast, it's hard to know what sort of form State Of Play is in. He's only run once since finishing fourth last year and that yielded a laboured effort in Denman's Hennessy.

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Two days to go. Many decisions still to be made. And a posse of perilous handicaps still to be pored over.

But now seems as good a time as any to start fitting the first draft of a Festival plan in place. So here we go.

I'm a Menorah man in the Supreme Novices'. Punters have gone off him. I haven't and it might just be that I will lay Dunguib, too. Many think he's past the post. And maybe he is, but I just can't make him an even money chance on hurdles form.

The Arkle looks a fairly quiet race for me, though I'm keen on Somersby and Sizing Europe. I'm also thinking about opposing Osana in the place market, partly because three of the other Irish raiders look to have his measure if they stand up and partly because he looks bound to have lots of company up front.

News that Celestial Halo will wear blinkers in the Champion didn't come as a surprise and you can take it two ways. Maybe they have seen him rejuvenate in the blinds at home. Or maybe they are just concerned that he isn't going with much zest on the gallops. Either way, 12-1 still looks fair, especially from a back to lay viewpoint.

The William Hill, the cross country race and mares race can wait until tomorrow.

Master Minded at 5-6 for the Champion Chase? I've no strong views either way at this stage and the place market could be the right way to go here.

I'll be surprised if the books get a result in the Neptune, where Rite Of Passage and Finians Rainbow look strong, and if Punchestowns eases to 4-1 for the RSA Chase then he would begin to look like the each way value option against his stablemate Long Run. There is also room for an outsider to hit the frame here and it comes as no surprise to see money arriving for the Henderson neglected third string Burton Port in the last 48 hours.

More on the Coral Cup and the Fred Winter later, while the Bumper is always very tough until you have the final clue that paddock inspection provides.

The World Hurdle is fairly straightforward from this end in that I'm keen to take an each way crack at Big Buck's. Tidal Bay and his Cleeve Hurdle victim Time For Rupert make most appeal at this stage, while Tranquil Sea looks a worthy favourite in a very open Ryanair and Alfie Sherrin likewise in the Pertemps.

Logic suggests it should be Kauto, or possibly Denman if he can return to his Hennessy winning form, but some very good horses are lurking at double figure prices and Cooldine could yet be a springer, especially if the other Mullins big guns hit their marks earlier in the week.

I'm looking forward to delving into the Albert Bartlett and the final day handicaps, but the main supporting event on Friday has to be the Triumph Hurdle and Alaivan is a huge player here. It's rare you look at a Festival race in detail and come away thinking a horse is almost certain to be bang there at the finish, but that's what I thought when going through the Triumph the other day. Let's hope there is a winner or two to be found before then, though.

PS: City have just equalised in injury time at Sunderland! Maybe we are in for a good week.

First, because 4-7 for any Festival race is no good to man or beast.

Second, because whenever you take odds on about this gelding you do so knowing his lazy style means he is highly likely to go odds against in the run.

And third, because there are a couple of horses in this race who come from a different postcode than the gang Big Buck's has grown used to beating up on.

Granted, Tidal Bay's high head carriage and rather chequered chasing career won't make him everyone's ideal alternative to the jolly, but his Festival record is hard to find fault with and he plainly relished the return to hurdling when powering clear of Time For Rupert and Katchit in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in January.

Time For Rupert is 4lb better off this time and his highly progressive profile and powerful physique suggest that he will run another fine race at a big price. Karabak looks the stronger of Alan King's duo even allowing that the Cleeve third Katchit has reportedly blossomed at home of late, while Sentry Duty faces a much different test than when beating Katchit and Mr Thriller in a tactical three-runner contest here on New Year's Day.

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Istabraq, French Holly, Monsignor, Danoli and company made it look easy money in the old days, but each race has to be taken on its merits and the question for 2010 is whether Rite Of Passage represents much value at 3-1?

Suffice to say, I certainly won't be laying him at that price. Pinning an accurate number on what Dermot Weld's gelding has achieved in two hurdles wins isn't easy, but the style of those wins is hard to quibble with and the manner in which he bolted clear of smart Flat horses in the Leopardstown November Handicap suggests that he is improving rapidly. Some might say Dermot's Fez record isn't the greatest. I might say this chestnut has a great chance of putting that to rights.

Quel Esprit was just two lengths behind ROP in last year's Festival Bumper and I guarantee he will knock your eye out as a future chaser if you see him in the paddock. Willie Mullins seems high on his chances, too, but if the weather stays dry I suspect he might just get done for pace.

Lack of pace is no problem for leading British hope Finians Rainbow and he looks a good bet to reverse Challow Hurdle  form with Reve de Sivola on the basis that he travelled like much the best horse that day only to have his finished blunted by deep midwinter ground. Peddlers Cross also looms large among the British contingent but is still too much of an unknown quantity to assess accurately, while Summit Meeting has nothing but deep ground form to his credit and Q-Easing seemed to have some limitations exposed even allowing that his Kempton defeat came in a slowly-run race.

But spin the coin and you could also take the view that we have one horse with just two chases and a recent setback to overcome and a talented but fiery French import who is ridden by an amateur who can't be fully relied on to match the top pros in the heat of such an unforgiving battle.

I've no doubt that Punchestowns and Long Run are two formidably talented chasers, but the setback to the former and the shortening price of the latter means this is probably a race to revisit later.

It's rare that there isn't at least one horse who springs from the pack to hit the board at a big price in this severe test of a novice, but for the moment I'll pass and see how the Punchestowns story progresses over the next few days.

What do I say? Well, it's not hard to pose questions about some of his rivals. A close friend has just been on the phone to describe Twist Magic as one of the each way value bets of the entire week - but he went a bit quiet when I reminded him that the Nicholls backup to MM has been stuffed in the last two runnings of this and that his last five form fgures without the mighty Reubens on his back read 3F6F6.

Logic and the form book suggest Kalahari King has progressed more than Forpadydeplasterer since that rival pipped him in a thrilling Arkle last year, while Big Zeb ran the double M to a head at Punchestown last spring and is a definite place contender if he can eliminate the sort of lunge which saw him depart here twelve months ago.

But, whichever way you slice it, the 2010 Champion Chase revolves around whether Master Minded is healthy and fully over the rib trouble which was cited as his excuse when beaten by Well Chief here before Christmas. He certainly looked back on track when crushing inferior rivals at Newbury last month.

I wouldn't put anyone off such a brilliant chaser in his hat trick bid, especially if he touches evens again. However, no-one needs telling that an even money shot must go close. The each way and place only markets could be more appealing here and KK and Big Zeb look the likely lads to capitalise if the Master fluffs his lines.

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If Dunguib wins, I lose. Correction, if Dunguib wins I lose less than seemed likely thanks to Paddy Power's decision to refund stakes on other runners if the Irish banker of the week lives up to his billing.

My reason for opposing Dunguib is straightforward. It isn't his so-called suspect jumping or the possibility that he will start to fret in the preliminaries.

Put simply, I feel there is a chance that there are a couple of horses in this field who might be good enough to threaten him over hurdles.

Menorah's trouncing of the smart Bellvano in a fast time at Kempton Boxing Day is one of the single most impressive performances seen by a novice this season and I'm more than happy tp put a line through his Ascot defeat on the basis that he was given a bizarre ride by a man who had been stretchered off the course after a ferocious fall just half an hour earlier.

Being steadied behind a true gallop should be ideal for Menorah. Backing him to win at 12-1 with Paddy makes perfect sense given that tempting money back offer if the Dung comes up smelling of roses. And backing him each way with anyone now the NRNB concession has kicked in offers a fair amount of upside, too.

The case for using Get Me Out Of Here as backup to Menorah is simple and revolves around the belief that he is unbeaten and already has form which is good enough to close at this level. His win in a hugely competitive Totesport Trophy off a mark of 135 at Newbury proved that he thrives in the heat of a big field and provided that race hasn't left a mark his chance of hitting the frame is obvious next Tuesday.

I defy anyone to argue that there is more than a few pounds between most of the principals here, so finding potential chinks is the key.

Captain Cee Bee can win without my money now he's down to 3-1 in places, while Tataniano blotted his copybook when turned over at big odds on at Newbury and plainly has it to prove now.

Riverside Theatre looks admirably professional and open to more improvement, while Sports Line could be a live one if he settles well enough, but my two against the field at this point are Somersby and Sizing Europe.

Somersby ticks many of the boxes needed for an Arkle contender. A tremendously handsome gelding with high-class hurdles form including an excellent third behind Go Native and Medermit in a potent renewal of the Supreme Novices' last year, he has jumped like a natural for two impressive chasing successes and it isn't hard to visualise him being poised just off the pace travelling very powerfully indeed coming down the hill.

Plenty fair judges seem out to get Sizing Europe on the basis that he is ill equipped for the challenge of the hill, but it seems clear with hindsight that injury caused his tame retreat when favourite for the 2008 Champion Hurdle and he certainly didn't wilt when winning the Greatwood Hurdle under foul conditions here a few months before that fateful day.

Granted, Captain Cee Bee seemed set to run him very close when he crumpled at the last at Leopardstown in December, but I'm not as conviced as some that Sizing Europe would have been beaten that day. I am convinced that Sizing Europe has taken very well indeed to chasing and his jumping looks assured overall. He's also twice the price of Captain Cee Bee with the potential to get a bit bigger yet and to my mind that makes him potentially overpriced.

Hurricane Fly was in as favourite only to go out with injury. Last year's third Binocular replaced him only to be ruled out and then (possibly) back in after a couple of subdued efforts this season. Dunguib has never really been in but now seems to have been ruled out, while Solwhit was firmly in and led the lists for some while before Monday's setback threatened to rule him out.

Confused? You probably will be right up to the off in a race where Racing Post ratings have a measly 3lb between no fewer than seven leading contenders and the best advice is probably to keep the staking plan to a sensible level and hope for the best.

The doubts over Solwhit's presence complicates matters further - as he was the one horse who seemed sure to run his race and go close - but my main value angle as things stand with just under a week to go is to repeat the suggestion that last year's runner-up Celestial Halo can give those who back him at 14-1 or bigger on the exchanges with a view to laying off at around 6 in running a real shout for their money.

Granted, this gelding has something to prove after an uncharacteristically subdued effort behind Solwhit at Leopardstown on his latest start, but horses who go close in this race do tend to come back and shine again and the way that Celestial Halo battled on after helping force a searching gallop last year shouldn't be forgotten easily.

Two of his three runs this season - namely that Wincanton romp and a fine second giving 4lb to Khyber Kim in the Boylesports - suggest that he is every bit as good as he was this time last year. And provided Ruby rides him with a touch more restraint this time Celestial Halo looks capable of making his long odds look pretty generous next Tuesday.